PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS IN HO CHI MINH CITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Nguyen Ky Phung

Abstract


This work aimed at developing precipitation scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) corresponding to scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. By means of data collecting and processing and SimCLIM software, results showed the average annual precipitation in HCMC would increase over the years and RCP scenarios: from 13.4 % to 24 % in 2100 compared to that in the period of 1986-2005. The dry seasonal precipitation would tend to decrease while the rainy seasonal one would increase. By space, average annual and seasonal precipitations in HCMC decrease from the northwest to the southeast: the highest one are in the north (Cu Chi, Hoc Mon) and the city center while the lowest are in the coastal area (Can Gio). These results are an important basis for assessing impacts and vulnerability due to precipitation variations in particular and climate change in general in HCMC.


Keywords


climate change, climate change scenario, rainfall, precipitation.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15625/2525-2518/55/4C/12139 Display counter: Abstract : 187 views. PDF : 198 views.

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Published by Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology